Context:
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut the repo rate by 25 basis points from 6.25% to 6%, marking its second consecutive cut in 2025.
- The monetary policy stance has shifted from ‘neutral’ to ‘accommodative’, indicating a bias towards further rate cuts or holding steady, depending on global and domestic conditions.
Key Announcements by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra
- GDP Forecast (FY26): Cut by 20 basis points to 6.5%.
- Inflation Forecast (FY26): Revised down to 4%, citing lower food prices and global crude oil at $60 per barrel.
- Monetary Stance Explained:
- Malhotra clarified that an accommodative stance implies only two possible policy actions ahead: a rate cut or status quo—barring any major shocks.
- Liquidity Support: RBI to maintain surplus liquidity equivalent to 1% of bank deposits (approx. ₹2.3 lakh crore), up from the current ₹1.5 lakh crore.
Implications for Borrowers and the Economy
- Cheaper Loans:
- Banks are expected to transmit lower rates to consumers, leading to reduced EMIs on home loans, car loans, and personal loans.
- Growth Focused Policy:
- The central bank emphasized non-inflationary growth driven by balanced demand-supply, macroeconomic stability, and accommodative credit conditions.
- Global Impact:
- Trade tensions and tariffs remain key concerns. India’s exports face moderate impact, but the uncertainties have led to a more cautious growth outlook.
Why the Repo Rate Cut Matters
- The repo rate is the benchmark interest rate at which RBI lends to commercial banks.
- A cut generally lowers lending rates across the banking system, spurring credit growth, consumption, and investment—vital for economic momentum amid global slowdowns.
Inflation Outlook
- Inflationary pressures have eased due to:
- Decline in global oil prices
- Lower food inflation
- However, the RBI remains vigilant against volatility in food supply, especially amid risks from heatwaves and monsoon uncertainties.
Strategic Takeaway
- With two consecutive rate cuts and a dovish policy stance, the RBI is aiming to stimulate domestic demand, while keeping inflation within target.
- This sets a positive tone for rate-sensitive sectors like real estate, auto, and consumer durables.
