Background: Trump’s First Term Approach
- Federal Reserve (Fed)
- Trump pressured the Fed to lower interest rates but respected its independence, understanding market sensitivities.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF)
- Retained bipartisan appointments and used the IMF to manage complex global financial issues.
- World Bank
- Appointed David Malpass but made minimal structural interventions.
Shift in Strategy for Trump 2.0
- More radical and aggressive institutional disruption is underway.
- Trump seems less concerned with financial markets and more focused on dismantling international institutions.
- Has already shut down USAID, signaling potential withdrawal from larger global financial bodies.
World Bank and IMF Under Threat
- Project 2025, Trump’s second-term roadmap, suggests withdrawing from both the World Bank and IMF.
- Trump signed an executive order to review all international intergovernmental organizations for potential withdrawal.
World Bank
- US contribution is relatively small ($2.8 billion in 2024).
- The Bank largely funds itself via bond issuance.
- European countries could step in to compensate for US absence.
IMF
- US contributions are significant (~20% of IMF resources).
- Withdrawal could allow China and other nations to push through long-blocked quota and voting reforms, increasing their influence.
Potential Consequences for the US
- Loss of soft power and global influence.
- Seen as abandoning financial assistance to developing countries.
- Reduced ability to shape international financial and economic policies.
Risks to the Federal Reserve
- Inflation pressures from Trump’s proposed tariffs and tax cuts could trigger conflict with the Fed.
- Trump may blame the Fed if inflation rises or recession hits.
- Risks of presidential interference with Fed independence, possibly through:
- Attempted removal of Chair Jay Powell.
- Appointing a Fed chair loyal to the White House.
- Extreme scenarios, including taking over Fed systems with administration loyalists.
Trump’s second term could mark a historic break from US leadership in international financial institutions. The Fed’s independence may face unprecedented threats. Global markets and US soft power would be significantly impacted if these scenarios unfold.
