Context:
The US has launched a “decisive and powerful” wave of air strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen, President Donald Trump has said, citing the group’s attacks on shipping in the Red Sea as the reason.
Key Objectives
- President Trump’s administration aims to succeed where past administrations failed by:
- Delivering overwhelming military force.
- Directly targeting Houthi leadership (something avoided under the Biden administration).
- Sending a clear deterrence message to Iran and the wider region.
- Ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, a critical global shipping corridor.
Nature of the Campaign
- Described by officials as the start of a sustained, unrelenting campaign potentially lasting weeks.
- U.S. strikes focused on:
- Missile launchers being moved to attack shipping lanes.
- Homes of Houthi leaders in San’a and Sa’dah.
Houthi Response
- Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi vowed retaliation, including missile strikes on U.S. warships.
- Houthis launched a 12-hour drone and missile attack aimed at the USS Harry S. Truman carrier strike group.
- U.S. fighter jets intercepted drones; the missile fell harmlessly into the sea.
Who are the Houthis?
- The Houthis are a Yemeni rebel group officially known as Ansar Allah.
- Origin:
- They emerged in the 1990s in Yemen’s northern Saada province as a Shia revivalist movement.
- Key Characteristics:
- Follow the Zaydi Shia branch of Islam.
- Supported by Iran, though both parties deny direct control.
- Current Status:
- Control large parts of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, since 2014.
- Involved in an ongoing civil war with a Saudi-led coalition supporting Yemen’s internationally recognized government.
Why are they attacking ships?
Solidarity with Palestinians:
- The Houthis claim they are targeting ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in protest against Israel’s military actions in Gaza.
- They say these attacks are a show of support for Palestinians and are directed toward vessels linked to Israel, the US, or the UK.
Wider Anti-West and Anti-Israel Stance:
- The Houthis are part of the “Axis of Resistance”, alongside Iran, Hezbollah, and other groups that oppose Israel and Western influence in the Middle East.
Pressure Tactics:
- By threatening vital maritime trade routes, they aim to increase global pressure on Israel and its allies.
- The Red Sea is a critical maritime chokepoint, with about 15% of global trade passing through it, including oil and LNG shipments.
Impact of the Attacks
- Dozens of merchant ships have been targeted with missiles, drones, and small boats since November 2023.
- So far:
- 2 ships sunk
- 1 vessel seized
- 4 crew members killed
- Major shipping companies are rerouting via southern Africa, causing longer transit times and higher shipping costs.
- The Suez Canal — vital for trade between Asia and Europe — has seen drastically reduced use by US-flagged and other vessels.
Response from the West and Israel
- US and British air strikes have targeted Houthi military positions repeatedly, but attacks continue.
- Israel has launched air strikes against Houthi positions in retaliation for hundreds of missiles and drones launched from Yemen.
- Former US President Donald Trump has threatened overwhelming military action if the attacks persist, warning both the Houthis and Iran.
Iran’s Position
- Iran is believed to be a key backer of the Houthis, supplying weapons and technology.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister dismissed US threats and accused Washington of hypocrisy, urging the US to stop supporting Israel’s actions in Gaza and stop harming the Yemeni people.
Historical Context
- The Houthis, initially a tribal insurgency, took over northern Yemen and San’a in 2014, triggering ongoing civil war.
- Despite Saudi-led and U.S.-backed airstrikes, the Houthis have survived and strengthened, supported by Iranian arms and training.
- Since late 2023, the Houthis have attacked over 100 commercial vessels, sinking two and killing four sailors.
Strategic Risks and Challenges
- Experts warn of a vicious cycle of escalation.
- The Houthis may target:
- U.S. bases in Djibouti and the UAE.
- Saudi Arabia, to pressure Washington indirectly.
- There are concerns that striking leadership could make the Houthis more unpredictable.
Regional Dynamics
- Iran’s allies in the region (Hamas, Hezbollah) are currently weakened.
- Iran denies direct control over the Houthis but threatens retaliation if attacked directly by the U.S.
- Disruptions in arms shipments to Yemen are ongoing, though Iran continues to use alternative smuggling routes.
Takeaways
- The U.S. appears to be addressing the Houthis as an independent threat, not just an Iranian proxy.
- The effectiveness of the campaign will depend on deterrence holding and whether the Houthis can regroup.
- The strikes could remove one of Iran’s last operational levers against the U.S. and Israel, but the Houthis are capable of acting autonomously.
