US Exit the Paris Agreement

History

• The landmark accord in 2015 wrote wherein the parties made commitments to limit the temperate rise of global warming to levels well below 2°C while striving for no more than 15°C above the preindustrial level.
• Despite global turmoil that included terrorist attacks in France during 2015, the Accord was considered to be a political victory, where 196 nations came together towards a common goal.

• Global Instability
  • In the last ten years, climate action has not been collective due to ongoing conflicts with increasing inflation as well as extreme political polarization.
• US Exit
  • Donald Trump executive order to withdraw the United States from the Accord and its implications are huge.
  • More US emissions would lead to an additional 4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030.
  • Republican policies include rolling back climate regulations, increase extraction of fossil fuel and reducing the incentives for green energy.
• Global Fallout
  • Europe would retaliate, for example by imposing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on the trade.
  • China can leverage the opportunity of becoming a leader in green technology innovation.

Weaknesses of the Paris Agreement

• Loosely Conventional Commitments
  • NDCs are non-enforceable and so progress is entirely dependent on political will.
• Global Stock
  • Reports have data gaps often.
• Ambiguity Around 15°C
  • A critical benchmark for small island nations, but does not factor in latent heat of oceans hence greater risks.
• Half Success
  • The pact has spurred lawsuits and side deals on topics like methane and biodiversity but lacks practical implementation measures.
• Lack of Trust and Shortage of Funding
  • The industrialized world did not provide enough financing previously for the developing world so a lack of trust was developed. There is now a promise to increase annual contributions by 300 billion to continue through 2035 But the uncertainty this brings after US withdrawal looms over it all.

Opportunities Amid Challenges

• A US withdrawal opens up the opportunity to increase leadership from elsewhere.
• The possible legal binding targets and sanctions for noncompliance strengthen the agreement to make it a truly effective tool.

Conclusion

• The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is the weakest link of international climate cooperation though it allows other countries to step forward it makes what is already challenging to achieve within the framework of the Agreement worse. To continue being relevant, the Agreement must be strengthened through the enforcement mechanism, reliable funding, and collective political will for a catastrophic warming to be avoided.

What is Paris Agreement?