Overview
- The ongoing discourse on delimitation and financial devolution has led to intense political debate in Parliament and State Assemblies.
- Concerns are rising over its impact on India’s federal structure, particularly in terms of political representation and resource allocation.
Historical Context of Delimitation in India
- From 1951 to 1971, Lok Sabha seats increased in proportion to population growth.
- Population representation per seat rose from 7.3 lakh in 1951 to 10.1 lakh in 1971, when the seat count was fixed at 543.
- This freeze on seat allocation, in place since 1971, is set to expire in 2026.
Projected Changes in 2026
- If trends continue, the number of seats may rise to 753, with an average of 20 lakh people per seat.
- This could reduce the political representation of peninsular States, as their population growth rates have been lower than those of northern States like Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar.
Concerns Over Political Representation
- The 15th Finance Commission revised population-based financial devolution using 2011 Census data instead of 1971 data.
- A weightage for demographic performance was introduced to balance States with lower population growth but better development metrics.
- The core question remains: Should population alone determine representation?
Rethinking the Approach to Delimitation
- Instead of absolute population numbers, alternatives such as population density should be considered.
- The North-East already follows this principle, with smaller population sizes but greater seat representation.
- Even if the status quo is maintained, the overall number of seats should increase to reflect India’s growing population.
Limitations of a Purely Population-Based Approach
- The per capita approach to resource allocation and representation is misleading as it does not account for regional disparities.
- Factors such as gender and caste-based reservations further complicate the delimitation process.
- The demographic composition of a population is just as important as its size when determining entitlements, rights, and representation.
The Need for a Demographic Outlook
- A scientific, demographic-based approach should replace a simple headcount method.
- Consideration must be given to regional characteristics, historical trends, and socio-economic factors in political representation and financial devolution.
- Without such a nuanced approach, the federal balance of India could be severely disrupted.
The upcoming delimitation exercise must go beyond raw population figures and incorporate demographic, economic, and regional factors. A balanced approach is needed to prevent political marginalization and ensure equitable representation for all States while maintaining India’s federal integrity.
