Context:
In response to a terrorist attack in Jammu & Kashmir (Pahalgam), India’s Cabinet Committee on Security announced the suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan. India demands Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably abjure cross-border terrorism” for the treaty to be reinstated. Legally, the IWT has no exit clause, it can only be terminated through mutual agreement, as per Article XII(4).
Legal and Diplomatic Complexity
- India may seek justification under Articles 60 and 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT), though it is not a signatory, and Pakistan has not ratified it.
- Pakistan is exploring legal avenues through the World Bank, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, or the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
- The move risks internationalising the water-sharing issue, potentially inviting global scrutiny.
Operational Levers India Can Use
- Suspension allows India to:
- Stop sharing river flow data with Pakistan.
- Release or hold water at will, affecting flood and drought cycles.
- Avoid treaty-based scrutiny of hydro projects on western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab).
- Potential for agricultural and hydroelectric disruption in Pakistan, especially amid internal provincial disputes (e.g., Punjab vs. Sindh over canal projects).
Infrastructure Constraints
- Despite being allowed to store 3.6 MAF of water and irrigate 1.34 million acres, India currently stores only ~1 MAF and irrigates ~0.642 million acres in J&K and Ladakh.
- Major hydro projects on western rivers (Kishanganga, Ratle, Baglihar, etc.) are run-of-the-river, with limited storage.
- Long-term water maximisation plans face delays due to terrain, red tape, and underdeveloped infrastructure.
Broader Geopolitical Risks
- India’s move may:
- Influence China to withhold hydro data or cooperation on Sutlej and Brahmaputra rivers.
- Impact the renewal of the Ganga Water Treaty with Bangladesh (expiring 2026).
- Strain water-sharing relations with Nepal and affect Sri Lanka’s willingness to sign future treaties with India.
- Harm India’s regional image as a responsible upper riparian nation.
