Context & Background
India and China appear to be making cautious diplomatic strides toward improving ties, influenced in part by the broader US trade war dynamics. The 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations has offered an opportunity to recalibrate bilateral engagement.
Key Developments
- Exchange of Greetings:
- On April 1, President Droupadi Murmu and Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged messages to mark 75 years of diplomatic relations.
- Prime Minister Modi and President Xi had met in October during the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia their first major interaction since the 2020 Galwan clash.
- Symbolic & Diplomatic Engagements:
- A commemorative event in New Delhi featured Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Chinese Ambassador Xu Feihong, where both sides voiced intent to rebuild relations.
- China anticipates PM Modi’s possible participation in the SCO Summit in Tianjin this autumn.
- Restoration of Ties Underway:
- Direct Flights: Talks ongoing to resume flights suspended since 2020.
- Visas: China has issued 70,000 visas to Indians in 2024, but journalist and Kailash pilgrimage visas remain unresolved.
- Water Data Sharing: Renewed dialogue around sharing cross-border river data.
- Air Services Agreement: Civil aviation ministries in discussion for a revised bilateral pact.
Border Situation & Strategic Concerns
- Military Standoff Remains Fragile:
- Though disengagement has occurred in some areas, Indian and Chinese troops have only moved short distances from the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
- Much of the military equipment remains deployed, signaling incomplete de-escalation.
US Factor as a Catalyst
- The US’s recent imposition of 27% tariffs on Indian goods and 54% total tariffs on Chinese goods is believed to be nudging China and India toward closer coordination under shared pressure.
- India–China trade stood at $118.4 billion in 2023–24, with India carrying an $85 billion trade deficit.
While mistrust, especially over border issues, lingers, there is clear diplomatic momentum toward rebuilding India–China ties. Strategic necessity, driven in part by shared pressures from the US trade war, may foster more collaboration—if both sides see mutual benefit.