Context:
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has broached further discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending what they would term the Ukraine war in peace making it yet again the source of hope for peace as well as concern regarding further Russian manipulation.
Key Highlights:
Is Trump talking to Putin?
- Trump ended his 90 minutes of talk with Putin, the two leaders are well aware of the fact that under this sad situation, millions of deaths will have to be stopped.
- Russia has reported that Putin would also be prepared to liaison with U.S. officials for discussions about Ukraine.
- Trump Putin meeting in Saudi Arabia would be an important part of announcing a major shift from the previous U.S. course.
On the opposite of Biden policy
- Trump’s negotiations mark the very first step towards a deviation from the policy adopted by the Biden administration, which basically wanted to isolate Russia diplomatically.
- Otherwise, Biden was just calling Putin a “murderous dictator” and refusing any direct talks with him.
- Trump had earlier promised during his 2024 campaign to end the war within 24 hours of taking office.
Chances and Concerns over Ukraine
- Should that happen, bring Putin to the negotiating table very improbable.
- However, early signals indicate that Ukraine will need to compensate huge amounts:
- No U.S. troops sent into Ukraine in a future security agreement.
- No NATO membership for Ukraine.
- No restoration of pre 2014 borders, SMPR effectively legitimizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
- This might be seen by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a betrayal of commitments made by the U.S. and NATO.
Geopolitical Effects
- For Ukraine
- Negotiated settlement would be a huge loss to Ukraine, forcing it to accept Russian territorial gains.
- For Europe
- This is because the burden of addressing Russian aggression would primarily be borne by the EU without full U.S. support.
- For the U.S.
- The Trump administration has prioritized migration and trade deficits over confrontation with Russia, so the geopolitical realignment is profound.
