Context:
Integration of APMC mandis with the National Agriculture Market (eNAM) is enhancing price realization for farmers, says R Leshma Manogna, Assistant Professor at BITS Goa. Her NABARD-sponsored research focuses on price gaps, the role of middlemen, and market forecasting using AI and machine learning.
Key Benefits of eNAM Integration
- Real-time price visibility on eNAM helps farmers negotiate better and avoid exploitation by middlemen.
- Eliminates 60–70% of middlemen, allowing direct buyer-seller interaction via smartphone notifications.
- Standardized quality procedures for agricultural commodities are now in place.
- Farmers refuse low offers using market data from eNAM, including MSP awareness.
Ground Realities and Farmer Concerns
- Despite superior quality, farmers often don’t get desired prices.
- Initial implementation lagged, but significant improvement over the last five years.
- Smartphone access and digital literacy among farmers are key enablers.
BITS Goa & NABARD Study Highlights
- Draft report submitted to NABARD; focuses on price realization across 23 commodities in India’s western coastal region.
- 40+ survey questions covered farmers’ experiences with mandi-eNAM integration.
- Study aims to streamline direct market access and further cut out intermediaries.
Forecasting Price Trends Using AI & ML
- Prof. Manogna’s team compares traditional econometric models with:
- Machine Learning (ML)
- Deep Learning (DL)
- Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) – which outperform Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in price prediction accuracy.
- 15 years of wholesale price data analyzed using a 70:30 training/testing ratio.
Incorporating Ground-Level Variables
- Models now factor in:
- Climate change
- Soil quality
- Trade tariffs
- Purpose: To enhance climate-resilient agricultural productivity and accurate price forecasts.
eNAM is transforming agri-markets by enabling transparency, better prices, and predictive insights. The integration of tech and policy must continue for inclusive and sustainable agricultural growth. AI-powered price forecasting offers a future-ready tool for both policy planners and farmers.
