Context:
A new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) highlights growing concern over nuclear proliferation and modernisation, warning of a gradual erosion of arms control agreements. The 2025 edition confirms that India now holds more nuclear warheads than Pakistan, although both remain far behind China’s rapidly expanding stockpile.
India’s Nuclear Developments
- Current Arsenal: India is estimated to possess 180 nuclear warheads, placing it ahead of Pakistan’s inventory.
- Triad Capability: India maintains a well-established nuclear triad, enabling nuclear delivery via land-based missiles, aircraft, and submarine-launched systems.
- Modernisation Path: India is reportedly working on advanced delivery systems, including canisterised missiles with potential multiple warhead capabilities (MIRVs).
- Doctrinal Evolution: A shift appears underway toward integrating warheads with launch platforms in peacetime, which marks a potential departure from India’s traditional de-mated posture.
Pakistan’s Strategic Arsenal
- Warhead Estimate: SIPRI places Pakistan’s nuclear stock at 170 warheads.
- Operational Focus: The country’s nuclear programme remains centered on deterring India, with an emphasis on tactical nuclear weapons and short-range systems.
- Growth Outlook: Pakistan continues to expand its fissile material production and is likely to increase its warhead count in the coming years.
China’s Expanding Nuclear Capabilities
- Warhead Count: China now holds approximately 600 nuclear warheads, growing by about 100 per year since 2023.
- Infrastructure Build-up: The construction of hundreds of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos in remote regions signals strategic ambition.
- Operational Posture: There are signs that China may be moving toward deploying warheads on missiles during peacetime, breaking from earlier restraint.
Global Nuclear Landscape
- Total Inventory: Around 12,241 nuclear weapons exist globally, with roughly 9,614 available for military use.
- Dominant Powers: The United States and Russia continue to dominate global stockpiles, jointly holding over 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons (Russia: 5,459; USA: 5,177).
- Alert Status: An estimated 2,100 warheads are currently kept at high operational readiness.
Key Trends and Concerns
- Technology and Deterrence: The integration of artificial intelligence, cyber operations, quantum computing, and space-based systems into nuclear planning is making traditional deterrence models more complex and unstable.
- Arms Control Setbacks: With the New START treaty set to expire in 2026 and no new agreements in place, the world is at risk of entering an era of unchecked nuclear expansion.
- Strategic Instability: Disinformation campaigns and compressed decision-making timelines heighten the risk of miscalculation or unintended escalation.
India-Pakistan Tensions in 2025
The report highlights the border escalation earlier this year during ‘Operation Sindoor’, where concerns emerged over potential attacks near sensitive nuclear facilities, underscoring the volatility of the South Asian theatre.
Policy Directions for India
- Balanced Deterrence: India must modernize its capabilities without compromising its doctrine of minimum credible deterrence.
- Domestic Capacity Building: Strengthening indigenous technology in missile systems, early-warning networks, and secure communications will reduce external dependencies.
- Diplomatic Engagement: India should actively pursue regional dialogue on nuclear risk reduction and maintain its voice in global disarmament and non-proliferation platforms.
- Global Responsibility: As a non-NPT nuclear power with a strong track record, India has a strategic opportunity to lead on issues of responsible stewardship of nuclear technology.
