Source: TH
Context:
The Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024, released by the Office of the Registrar General of India (ORGI) under the Ministry of Home Affairs, has provided incontrovertible proof that India’s pace of population growth is considerably slowing. India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.9, lower than the replacement level of 2.1, while the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) has fallen from 21 (2014) to 18.3 (2024) and the Crude Death Rate (CDR) has marginally declined from 6.7 to 6.4.
Key Highlights
- Source: Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024.
- Publisher: Office of the Registrar General of India (ORGI), Ministry of Home Affairs.
Key SRS 2024 indicators:
| Indicator | 2014 | 2024 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Fertility Rate (TFR) | (Higher) | 1.9 | Below replacement level of 2.1 |
| Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) | 21 | 18.3 | Down |
| Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) | 6.7 | 6.4 | Marginally down |
| Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births) | 39 | 24 | Down sharply |
| Life expectancy at birth (years) | (Lower) | 72 | Up |
India’s youth demographics (2026):
- Median age: 29.2 years (vs China 40.2, several European nations even older).
- Youth aged 15-29: 370 to 380 million (about 27 per cent of population).
- Below 35 years: over 65 per cent of total population.
Drivers of falling fertility:
(a) Urbanisation. (b) Better education, especially female education. (c) Access to contraception and family planning services. (d) Smaller-family preferences linked to rising costs and aspirations. (e) Delayed marriage and childbearing.
Drivers of falling mortality:
(a) Better healthcare access. (b) Improved maternal-child health. (c) Higher institutional deliveries. (d) Better immunisation coverage. (e) Improved nutrition and sanitation.
Persistent disparities flagged by SRS:
- Rural-urban gap: Rural indicators trail urban significantly.
- South-North gap: Kerala (TFR ~1.5, IMR 8), Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh lead; Bihar, UP, MP, Rajasthan lag.
- High-burden northern states still report much higher IMR than the national average of 24.
About the News
What is the key finding of SRS 2024?
That India’s Total Fertility Rate has fallen to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1. Together with a Crude Birth Rate down to 18.3 and a Crude Death Rate at 6.4, the data indicates that India is transitioning from high-growth to low-growth demographics, on the path toward an ageing population.
Does this mean India’s population will start shrinking soon?
No, not immediately. Despite the sub-replacement TFR, demographers project at least three more decades of population growth because of population momentum (the large existing young cohort entering reproductive age). The peak is expected in the mid-2060s, after which the population is projected to plateau and eventually decline.
Why is India still enjoying a demographic dividend?
Because of its young median age of 29.2 years, ~370 to 380 million youth aged 15-29 (about 27 per cent), and over 65 per cent of the population below 35. This is in sharp contrast to China (median age 40.2) and most European nations, giving India a window of opportunity to harness the working-age population.
Background Concepts
What is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), and what is the replacement level?
TFR is the average number of children a woman is expected to bear during her reproductive lifetime (typically ages 15-49), assuming prevailing age-specific fertility rates. The replacement level fertility is conventionally pegged at 2.1, the rate at which a population exactly replaces itself in the long run (one for each parent, plus a small allowance for child mortality). A TFR below 2.1 signals that the population will eventually decline in the absence of immigration.
What is the “Demographic Dividend”?
The economic growth opportunity that arises when a country’s working-age population (15-64 years) grows faster than its dependent population (children and the elderly). It results from the demographic transition from high fertility and mortality toward low fertility and mortality. India’s dividend window opened around the early 2000s and is expected to last until the 2040s-2050s. Harnessing it requires investments in education, skilling, health, and job creation; failure to do so results in a demographic burden rather than a dividend.
What is the demographic transition model?
A theoretical framework with four to five stages describing the transition of a population from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops:
(a) Stage 1: High birth and high death rates, slow population growth (pre-modern). (b) Stage 2: High birth, falling death, rapid growth (early modernisation). (c) Stage 3: Falling birth, low death, slowing growth (India is currently here). (d) Stage 4: Low birth and low death, stable or slowly growing population (post-transition). (e) Stage 5: Below-replacement fertility, ageing and declining population (Japan, much of Europe).
Practice MCQs
Q1. With reference to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024, consider the following statements:
- India’s Total Fertility Rate has dropped to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1.
- India’s Crude Birth Rate has fallen from 21 in 2014 to 18.3 in 2024.
- India’s Crude Death Rate has marginally declined from 6.7 to 6.4 over the past decade.
- India’s Infant Mortality Rate has fallen to 24 per 1,000 live births.
How many of the above statements are correct? (a) Only one (b) Only two (c) Only three (d) All four (e) None
Q2. Consider the following statements about India’s demographic indicators:
- India’s median age is 29.2 years, significantly lower than China’s 40.2 years.
- India has approximately 370 to 380 million youth aged 15-29 years.
- More than 65 per cent of India’s population is below 35 years of age.
- India’s life expectancy at birth is now around 72 years.
Which of the above are correct? (a) 1, 2 and 3 only (b) 1, 3 and 4 only (c) 2 and 4 only (d) 1 and 4 only (e) All four
Q3. With reference to the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and replacement level fertility, consider the following statements:
- TFR is the average number of children a woman is expected to bear during her reproductive lifetime.
- The replacement level fertility is conventionally pegged at 2.1.
- A TFR below 2.1 signals that the population will eventually decline in the absence of immigration.
- India’s TFR is currently at the replacement level of 2.1.
Which of the above are correct? (a) 1, 2 and 3 only (b) 1, 3 and 4 only (c) 2 and 4 only (d) 1 and 4 only (e) All four
Q4. With reference to the Demographic Dividend and India’s demographic transition, consider the following statements:
- The demographic dividend refers to the economic growth opportunity arising when the working-age population grows faster than the dependent population.
- India’s demographic dividend window is expected to last until roughly the 2040s-2050s.
- India is currently in the third stage of the demographic transition model.
- The dividend is automatic and requires no policy intervention to translate into economic growth.
Which of the above are correct? (a) 1, 2 and 3 only (b) 1, 3 and 4 only (c) 2 and 4 only (d) 1 and 4 only (e) All four
Answer Key
- (d), All four statements are correct.
- (e), All four statements are correct.
- (a), Statements 1, 2, 3 are correct. Statement 4 is wrong; India’s TFR has dropped to 1.9, which is BELOW the replacement level of 2.1, not at the replacement level.
- (a), Statements 1, 2, 3 are correct. Statement 4 is wrong; the demographic dividend is NOT automatic. It requires deliberate investments in education, skilling, health, jobs, and infrastructure; without these, a young population can become a demographic burden rather than a dividend.
