Source: BS
Context:
India’s agricultural sector may face economic pressure if the ongoing West Asia geopolitical tensions continue for a prolonged period. A report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) warns that disruptions in trade routes and demand from Gulf markets could reduce farmer earnings and impact agricultural exports.
Importance of Agriculture in India’s Economy
- Agriculture contributed about 18% of India’s Gross Value Added (GVA) in FY26.
- The sector supports millions of farmers and agro-based industries.
- Export markets play a crucial role in stabilizing farm incomes.
Dependence on West Asia for Agricultural Exports
According to the GTRI report:
- India exported $11.8 billion worth of agricultural products to West Asia in 2025.
- This accounted for over one-fifth of India’s total agricultural exports.
Because of this dependence, prolonged geopolitical conflict in the region could disrupt trade and reduce demand for Indian farm products.
Agricultural Products Likely to be Impacted
Exports that could face major disruptions include:
- Cereals (especially rice)
- Fruits and vegetables
- Spices
- Meat and dairy products
- Beverages.
Among these, rice exports are most vulnerable.
Products Highly Dependent on Gulf Markets
Some agricultural products have over 70% of exports going to West Asia, making them particularly vulnerable:
| Product | Share of Exports to West Asia |
|---|---|
| Sheep and goat meat | 98.9% |
| Copra (dried coconut kernel) | 83.9% |
| Beer | 81% |
| Bananas and plantains | 79.6% |
| Nutmeg, mace and cardamom | 70.5% |
These sectors could face significant export losses if trade routes are disrupted.
