India’s Agricultural Exports: Trends, Drivers, Challenges and Import Patterns (2024–25 to 2025–26)

Context:

India’s agricultural exports are growing faster than overall merchandise exports, reflecting resilience in the farm sector amidst global uncertainty, trade restrictions, and commodity price volatility.

Export Trends (2024–25 to April–Sept 2025)

Strong Growth in 2025–26 (April–Sept 2025)

• Agricultural exports:
  • $25.9 billion (Apr–Sep 2025) vs $23.8 billion (Apr–Sep 2024)
  • Growth: 8.8%
• Overall merchandise exports:
  • $219.9 billion vs $213.7 billion
  • Growth: 2.9%

Performance in FY 2024–25 (April–March)

• Agricultural exports:
  • ↑ from $48.8 billion to $52 billion (growth: 6.4%)
• Merchandise exports:
  • ↑ marginally from $437.1 billion to $437.7 billion (growth: 0.1%)

India’s farm exports clearly outperformed total exports in both years.

Key Drivers of Agricultural Export Growth

1. Non-Basmati Rice

• Lifted export restrictions imposed earlier to control domestic inflation.
• Restrictions removed because of good monsoons, adequate stocks, and stable prices.
• Exports on track to cross last year’s $6.5 billion record.

2. Marine Products

• 17.4% increase in Apr–Sep 2025.
• Could beat the $8.1 billion all-time high of 2022–23.
• Despite US tariffs, exporters diversified to China, Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, EU, Canada.

3. Coffee

• Exports doubled from $739 million (2019–20) to $1.8 billion (2024–25).
• Surge driven mainly by global price rise due to falling stocks (25-year low), not just by quantity.
• Likely to exceed $2 billion in 2025–26.

4. Fruits & Vegetables

• Steady growth:
  • Fresh: $1.4 bn → $2.1 bn (2019–20 to 2024–25)
  • Processed: $958 million → $1.8 bn
• Continued momentum in 2025–26.

Volatility in India’s Farm Exports

India’s agricultural exports have experienced frequent cycles:

Cause of Volatility

• Closely linked to FAO global food price index trends.
• Long fall (2014–2020), steep rise (2021–23), decline again (2023–25).
• Export restrictions by Government of India (wheat, rice, sugar, onions, DOC) also reduced shipments.

Role of FAO Food Price Index

• 2013–14: 119.1
• 2015–16: 90
• Stayed below 100 till 2019–20
• Rose to 102.4 (2020–21), 133.1 (2021–22), 140.6 (2022–23)
• 2025: Down to 126.4 (Oct 2025)

Low cereal and sugar sub-index values → bearish export outlook in coming months.

Impact of Trump Tariffs

• US imposed 58% effective tariff on Indian seafood.
• Overall marine exports still grew, but exports to US dipped by 0.4% in Apr–Sep.
• Sharp falls in US-bound exports (Sep 2025):
  • Marine products: –26.9%
  • Spices: –45.1%
  • Basmati rice: –17.8%

Positive Development

• Signals of an India–US trade deal soon.
• US rolled back tariffs on spices, tea, coffee, fresh fruits—favourable for India.

Import Trends (Apr–Sep 2025)

India’s farm imports grew faster than total imports.

• Agricultural imports:
  • $19.5 bn vs $18.4 bn → 5.9% growth
• Overall imports:
  • $375 bn vs $358.9 bn → 4.5% growth

Highly Concentrated Import Basket

India imports mainly:

1. Vegetable Oils (No.1; +13.5%)
   • Likely to reach ~$20.8 bn high (2022–23).
2. Pulses
   • Hit an unprecedented $5.5 bn in 2024–25.
   • Falling in 2025–26 due to bumper domestic production + reimposition of import duties.
3. Fresh Fruits
   • Over $3 bn (2024–25);
   • US accounts for 50% (almonds, pistachios, walnuts, dry fruits).
4. Raw Cotton
   • India turned from exporter to importer;
   • Imports may cross $1.5 bn.
   • Reason: stagnant yields due to no major technology since Bt cotton.

Outlook for 2025–26

The performance will depend on:

• Global commodity prices (currently bearish)
• Impact of US tariffs
• Possible India–US trade deal
• Domestic policy on export restrictions