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India’s Deposit Rates Declining

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RBI Grade BNABARD ESISEBI
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Banks & NBFCs begin cutting deposit rates, signaling an expected drop in interest rates. RBI expected to cut the repo rate on April 9, following a February reduction. Liquidity improving as RBI purchases bonds worth ₹1.4 lakh crore since January, with an additional ₹80,000 crore buyback announced.

Deposit Rate Cuts by Major Lenders

  • HDFC Bank: Ended special deposits; rates reduced from 7.35% to 7% (35-month deposits) and 7.40% to 7% (55-month deposits).
  • Yes Bank: Reduced fixed deposit rates by 0.25 percentage points.
  • Bajaj Finance: Lowered rates by 0.25 percentage points on long-tenure deposits; 42-month FD now at 8.15% (from April 10).
  • Bandhan Bank: Savings deposit rates now 3-5% (previously 6%).

Government Small Savings Schemes Unaffected

  • RBI Bonds & Senior Citizen Savings Scheme (SCSS) still offer 8.2% for April-June.
  • Investors advised to lock in current high FD rates for long tenures.

Liquidity & Market Impact

  • Systemic liquidity moved from deficit to surplus (March deficit: ₹1.3 lakh crore).
  • Open Market Operations (OMOs) by RBI contributing to better liquidity conditions.
  • First fiscal quarter sees slow credit growth, allowing banks to reduce deposit rates without scrambling for funds.

Investment Implications

  • Fixed Deposits vs. Government Bonds:
    • AAA-rated Bajaj Finance FD: 8.4% vs. 10-year government bond yield: 6.5%.
    • Spread of 1.9 percentage points makes FDs attractive.
  • Debt Funds vs. Fixed Deposits:
    • Debt fund returns vary with market conditions, while FDs offer stable returns.
    • Retirees & conservative investors prefer FDs due to regular cash flow.

Rate Cuts & Market Adjustments

  • Interest rate transmission underway due to surplus liquidity.
  • More banks & NBFCs likely to lower deposit rates soon.
  • Borrowing rates expected to decline, boosting credit growth in coming months.

TET

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