Source: Financial Express
Context:
Economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep policy interest rates unchanged in the upcoming monetary policy review, adopting a cautious wait-and-watch approach amid global geopolitical tensions and uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
Current Monetary Policy Position
- In the February 2026 monetary policy review, the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%.
- The central bank maintained a neutral policy stance, allowing flexibility to respond to future economic developments.
Why Economists Expect a Policy Pause
- Geopolitical Uncertainty
- The ongoing West Asia conflict has created volatility in global commodity and energy prices.
- Sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices—from around $120 per barrel to nearly $81—have increased uncertainty for policymakers.
- Supply-Side Inflation Risks
- The crisis mainly affects supply chains and energy markets, rather than domestic demand.
- Tightening policy could slow economic growth without effectively addressing supply-driven inflation.
- Balanced Growth–Inflation Outlook
- Policymakers must balance inflation risks from rising oil prices with the need to support economic growth.
Liquidity Management by RBI
The RBI has taken steps to maintain adequate liquidity in the financial system:
- Conducted Open Market Operations (OMO) worth â‚ą50,000 crore on March 9.
- Scheduled another â‚ą50,000 crore OMO purchase to stabilize bond markets and ease liquidity pressures.
These measures aim to counter liquidity drains caused by:
- Foreign exchange interventions
- Maturing FX forwards
- Advance tax and GST outflows.
