Context:
Friedrich Merz, on course to become post-World War II Germany’s 10th chancellor after the country’s election, has vowed to prioritize European unity and the continent’s security as it grapples with the new Trump administration and Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Internal Effects: Change towards Conservative Rule
- End of Scholz’s Centre Left Coalition
- It will be the policy shift from the centre left back to conservative governance as the CDU takes power.
- Focusing Economic Issues
- Merz is expected to create business friendly policies, tax cuts, and stricter fiscal discipline, thereby leading the country from high spending under the charge of Scholz’s government.
- Harder Stance on Immigration
- The CDU may tighten immigration policies to somehow correspond to the growing support for the far right AfD.
European Implications: Status Quo versus New Dynamics
- Strengthened Franco German Coordination
- As Merz rises to the top office in Germany, he will most definitely build up ties with President Emmanuel Macron from France for keeping the EU in a stable state.
- Restructured EU Economic Policies
- More rigorous budget rules for EU member states may be a result of his economic conservatism and would affect countries like Italy and Spain, whose predilection is for higher expenses rather than being fiscally conserved.
- Energy and Green Policy Adjustment
- While the CDU is pro climate action, Merz may oppose expensive green policies on the way to a more pragmatic transition instead of jumping in full speed on decarbonization.
Germany’s Strategy Amid Potential Trump Presidency
- Problems with Trump America
- This pro American attitude will be put to a test when, in case Donald Trump returns to the White House, Merz will apply such a strategy as Trump has declared NATO and with respect to European security commitment to be thinner.
- Increased Military Spending in Germany
- Merz may therefore increase military spending and push for an enhanced defense strategy in Europe due to pressure from the United States.
- Accords and Economic Strategy
- If Trump imposes tariffs on imports of European goods, Merz will have to balance relationships with the U.S. and China to somehow save Germany’s export driven economy.
Friedrich Merz’s leadership will represent a progressive shifting of the political spectrum in Germany to the right direction, emphasizing instead on economic policies, tougher immigration policies, and pro business strategies. His success will depend on handling all of these political affairs, such as trying to manage European alliances, responding to shifts in U.S. foreign policy, and raising the issues of domestic voters concerned with the rise of the far right.
Source: The Hindu
