Russia-Ukraine War

Context:

U.S. President Donald Trump told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to make a deal to end the grinding Ukraine war “now” or face tariff hikes and more sanctions.

Background of the Conflict

• Post Soviet Independence
  • Ukraine gained independence in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
  • Russia has since sought to keep Ukraine in its orbit.
• Crimea Annexation
  • In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea which provided it with a strategic maritime advantage.
  • Separatist insurgency in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region was supported by Russia.

Ukraine to Russia

• Cultural and Historical Ties
  • This region has deep cultural linguistic and historical bonds with Ukraine and Russia.
• Strategic Location
  • Access to the Black Sea and connectivity to the Mediterranean Sea are crucial for Russia.
• Economic Significance
  • Ukraine’s industries agriculture and defense manufacturing are vital to regional trade.

Reasons for Russian Aggression

• Economic Factors
  • Russia wanted Ukraine to join the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) but Ukraine refused impacting Russian economic ambitions.
• Geopolitical and Strategic Factors (NATO)
  • NATOs eastward expansion perceived as a threat by Russia is a key concern.
  • Worries of the Russians about these plans do heighten with the missile defense systems that NATO plans to install in Eastern Europe.

Latest Developments

• Russian Military Build Up
  • More than 10,00,00 Russian troops have been stationed at Ukraine’s border.
  • Russia insists that NATO guarantee them they would not allow Ukraine and Georgia to join the alliance.
• Western Response
  • The US has promised decisive action including economic sanctions in case of Russian aggression.
  • Germany threatens to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine.

Implications for India

• Strategic Balancing
  • India needs to balance its relations with Russia and the Western alliance.
• CAATSA Sanctions Risk
  • India’s defense cooperation with Russia including the S400 deal could attract US sanctions.
• Impact on Indian Diaspora
  • The crisis is threatening thousands of Indian students and workers in Ukraine.
• Geopolitical Implications
  • Russia-China ties if consolidated would pose a challenge to India’s strategic interests.

India’s Position

• Supports diplomatic solution to the crisis.
• Keeps its distance from voting against Russia at the UN.
• Favors the status quo since 2014 in Crimea.

Current War Situation in Ukraine

Escalation of Western Involvement

• Supply of Sophisticated Arms
  • The Western world has recently announced further supplies of sophisticated arms to Ukraine indicating more significant involvement in the war.
  • This further escalates tensions between Russia and NATO, thereby increasing the chances of a direct clash between these nuclear powers.
• Fortified Frontlines
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has consolidated his troops along the 1000km frontline in Ukraine.
• Unrealized Goals
  • Russia initially wanted to set up a pro Moscow regime, occupy Ukraines east and south and transform it into a landlocked country. None of these objectives have been realized.
• Russia’s High Point Control
  • By March 2022 Russia controlled some 22 of Ukraine’s territory before 2014 including strategic locations like Mariupol.
• Ukraine Counter Attacks
  • Ukraine recaptured areas in Kharkiv and Kherson bringing the Russian control level down to approximately 17.