The Ageing World and India’s Narrowing Window

Context

Key Highlights

• Global ageing: Over 70% of the world’s population lives in countries with fertility at or below replacement level. Global fertility fell from 4.9 (1950) to about 2.2.
• India’s ageing: India entered the “ageing” category around 2024, with 65+ population crossing 7%. It may become “aged” (14%) by 2049 and “super-aged” (21%) by 2065.
• Demographic dividend: About 68% of Indians were aged 15–64 in 2025, but the working-age share is expected to decline after 2030.
• Economic opportunity: Demographic change contributed about 1.9 percentage points annually to India’s growth during 1981–2021.
• Women’s employment: Female labour-force participation is around 32%. Raising it to 50% could add about 1 percentage point annually to GDP growth, according to the World Bank estimate cited.
• Elderly population: Indians aged 60+ are projected to rise from 153 million (2022) to 347 million (2050).
• Policy challenge: India needs more jobs, skills and female employment while preparing for higher demand for pensions, healthcare, geriatric care and senior housing.

Key Terms

• Demographic Dividend: Economic growth potential created when the working-age population becomes larger relative to dependants.
• Replacement-Level Fertility: Fertility rate needed to maintain a broadly stable population; generally around 2.1 children per woman.
• Working-Age Population: Usually the population aged 15–64 years.
• Ageing Population: A population in which the share of older people is increasing significantly.
• Super-Aged Society: A society where 21% or more of the population is aged 65 or above.
• Silver Economy: Economic activities and markets related to the needs of older people.
• Female Labour-Force Participation Rate (FLFPR): Share of working-age women who are employed or actively seeking employment.