Context:
International markets will likely witness an oil surplus of 950,000 bpd in 2025 even though Opec+ countries extended their supply cut, said the International Energy Agency.
Highlights:
- This can work well for India as an enormous oil glut might mean lower oil prices.
- If the Opec+ bloc starts unwinding the voluntary cuts from the end of March 2025, the oil overhang may increase to 1.4 million bpd.
- The level of compliance with agreed targets remains the key uncertainty for the trajectory of Opec+ crude supply.
- The average discount of Russian Urals grade of crude oil to dated Brent remains stable at $12.1 per barrel in three months ahead of October
- OPEC+ crude oil production may still have a rise next year when Libya, South Sudan and Sudan can sustain production and 260,000 bpd Tengiz expansion goes online in Kazakhstan.
- Non-OPEC countries will continue to dominate supply growth, with the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina adding more than 1.1 million bpd of crude oil and natural gas liquid (NGL) output between them.
- Global oil demand growth will be subdued in 2025, picking up only slowly from 840,000 b/d in 2024 to 1.1 million b/d, while overall consumption will be at 103.9 million b/d.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an intergovernmental organization that aims to regulate the price and supply of oil in the world market.
- Headquarter
- Vienna, Austria
- Established
- 14 September 1960
- Secretary General
- Haitham al-Ghais
