Super El Niño 2026-27

Source: Down to Earth

Context

The United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed on 11 June 2026 the formation of a new El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, issuing an El Niño Advisory. NOAA placed the odds at 63 per cent that it will intensify into a very strong or “super” El Niño by the northern winter (November 2026-January 2027). A super El Niño is defined by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies exceeding 2°C in a specific reference patch of the Pacific. Since 1950, only four major events have crossed this extreme threshold: 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. The 2026-27 event could potentially become one of the strongest on record, with ECMWF projecting SST anomalies of +3°C by December 2026. The event is likely to weaken India’s southwest monsoon, cause droughts globally, push global temperatures above the 1.5°C threshold, and trigger ecological destruction.

What is El Niño?

• The warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
• Periodic, anomalous warming of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Occurs every 3-7 years.
• Affects global weather patterns.

What Makes a “Super” El Niño?

• SST anomaly exceeding 2°C in the Niño 3.4 reference region.
• ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) or RONI value of +2°C or above.
• Among the top 3-4 events in the reliable satellite record since late 1970s.

How El Niño Forms

Step 1: Slackening of Trade Winds

• Equatorial trade winds that normally blow east to west begin to stall or reverse.
• Normally, these winds push warm surface waters toward Asia.

Step 2: West-to-East Warm Water Drift

• With weakened winds, warm surface water accumulates and moves eastward toward South American coast.

Step 3: The Feedback Loop (Bjerknes Feedback)

• As eastern Pacific heats up, atmospheric pressure zones shift.
• This further slackens trade winds.
• Self-reinforcing cycle pushes temperatures past the 2°C threshold.

Step 4: Climate Change Multiplier

• Long-term climate change acts as an incubator.
• Higher baseline ocean heat makes modern super El Niños more intense than historical ones.

Impact on India

Monsoon Suppression

• El Niño often weakens the Indian monsoon.
• Below-normal rainfall.
• Increased drought risks across many regions.

Erratic Rainfall Distribution

• Delayed monsoon onset.
• Long dry spells.
• Crop growth and agricultural productivity affected.
• Kharif season at risk.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Variable

• A positive IOD may partly offset El Niño’s effects.
• Current forecasts suggest limited relief from monsoon weakening.

Global Impacts

Severe Ecological Destruction

• Forest fires (especially in Indonesia, Australia, Amazon).
• Coral bleaching (Great Barrier Reef, Indian Ocean reefs).
• Ecosystem degradation across tropical regions.

Extreme Transnational Droughts

• Many countries: Severe droughts, water shortages, crop failures.
• Heightened food security concerns.
• Vulnerable regions: Australia, Indonesia, Brazil, Southern Africa, parts of India.

Breaching Global Temperature Thresholds

• Releases additional ocean heat into the atmosphere.
• Pushes global temperatures to record levels.
• May push above the 1.5°C threshold (Paris Agreement).
• Climate simulations: “Shockingly high” temperatures forecast for November-December 2026.

About ENSO

• El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
• A semi-regular recurring cycle that transfers heat and momentum from the tropical Pacific to the global atmosphere.
• Three phases:
  • El Niño: Warm phase.
  • La Niña: Cool phase.
  • Neutral: Normal phase.
• Cycle frequency: Every 2-7 years.

About NOAA

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
• A US scientific agency under the Department of Commerce.
• Founded: 1970.
• Functions:
  • Weather forecasting.
  • Climate monitoring.
  • Ocean and fisheries research.
  • Climate change research.
• Headquartered: Silver Spring, Maryland.

Practice MCQs

Q1. With reference to NOAA’s June 2026 El Niño announcement, consider the following statements:

1. NOAA confirmed the formation of El Niño on 11 June 2026.
2. NOAA placed the odds at 63 per cent that it will intensify into a very strong or super El Niño by winter.
3. A super El Niño is defined by sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C in the Niño 3.4 region.
4. NOAA’s El Niño Advisory was downgraded to a Watch.

How many of the above statements are correct?

(a) Only one (b) Only two (c) Only three (d) All four (e) None

(Statement 4 is wrong; NOAA’s El Niño status was upgraded from Watch to Advisory, NOT downgraded.)

Q2. With reference to historical super El Niños, consider the following statements:

1. Since 1950, four major super El Niño events have been recorded: 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
2. The 2015-16 super El Niño is the current record holder for peak SST anomaly.
3. Super El Niños have an SST anomaly exceeding 2°C in the reference region.
4. There has never been a super El Niño in recorded history.

How many of the above statements are correct?

(a) Only one (b) Only two (c) Only three (d) All four (e) None

(Statement 4 is wrong; four super El Niños have been recorded since 1950.)

Q3. With reference to the mechanism of El Niño formation, consider the following statements:

1. Slackening of equatorial trade winds is the trigger.
2. Warm surface water drifts from west to east toward the South American coast.
3. The Bjerknes feedback loop is a positive feedback that reinforces El Niño.
4. Climate change has made modern super El Niños less intense than historical ones.

Which of the above are correct?

(a) 1, 2 and 3 only (b) 1, 3 and 4 only (c) 2 and 4 only (d) 1 and 4 only (e) All four

(Statement 4 is wrong; climate change has made modern super El Niños MORE intense, NOT less.)

Q4. With reference to El Niño’s impact on India, consider the following statements:

1. El Niño often weakens the Indian southwest monsoon.
2. It can cause below-normal rainfall and increased drought risks.
3. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may partly offset El Niño’s effects.
4. El Niño typically enhances and strengthens the Indian monsoon.

Which of the above are correct?

(a) 1, 2 and 3 only (b) 1, 3 and 4 only (c) 2 and 4 only (d) 1 and 4 only (e) All four

(Statement 4 is wrong; El Niño typically WEAKENS the Indian monsoon, NOT strengthens it.)

Q5. With reference to El Niño’s global impacts, consider the following statements:

1. El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation due to wind shear.
2. It favours super typhoons in the Central and Eastern Pacific.
3. It can push global temperatures above the 1.5°C threshold.
4. El Niño has no effect on coral reefs.

Which of the above are correct?

(a) 1, 2 and 3 only (b) 1, 3 and 4 only (c) 2 and 4 only (d) 1 and 4 only (e) All four

(Statement 4 is wrong; El Niño causes coral bleaching and damage to reefs.)

Answer Key

1. (c), Statements 1, 2, 3 are correct; Statement 4 is wrong because the Advisory was upgraded, not downgraded.
2. (c), Statements 1, 2, 3 are correct; Statement 4 is wrong because four super El Niños have been recorded.
3. (a), Statements 1, 2, 3 are correct; Statement 4 is wrong because climate change has made modern El Niños more intense.
4. (a), Statements 1, 2, 3 are correct; Statement 4 is wrong because El Niño weakens the Indian monsoon.
5. (a), Statements 1, 2, 3 are correct; Statement 4 is wrong because El Niño causes coral bleaching.

Exam Relevance

Exam	Relevance
UPSC Prelims	GS Paper I on Geography (El Niño, ENSO, Monsoon); GS Paper III on Environment, Disaster Management
UPSC Mains	GS Paper I on Geography, Climate; GS Paper III on Environment, Agriculture, Food Security
BPSC and State PCS	Geography, Environment, Current Affairs
Banking and NABARD	Macroeconomic awareness, agriculture
RBI Grade B	Inflation, agricultural economy
NABARD Grade A	Very high importance, agriculture, monsoon, climate