Context:
Ahead of COP30 in Belem, Brazil, the United Nations released a synthesis report assessing countries’ updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for emission reductions. The report finds that current commitments are far below the levels needed to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets.
Key Highlights:
- Emission Reduction Gap:
- Countries are projected to reduce emissions by only 17% by 2035 (from 2019 levels).
- Required reductions to meet Paris targets:
- 37% by 2035 to limit warming to 1.5°C
- 57% by 2035 to limit warming to 2°C
- NDC Submissions:
- Only 64 out of 190 countries submitted updated NDCs by September 30, 2025.
- India is yet to submit its updated NDC since August 2022.
- Focus Beyond Mitigation:
- 73% of new NDCs include adaptation measures (adjusting to climate impacts).
- NDCs also address finance, technology transfer, capacity building, and loss & damage, reflecting the comprehensive scope of the Paris Agreement.
- Projected GHG Reductions:
- Total projected GHG emissions in 2035: ~13 billion tonnes CO₂ equivalent, only 6% below previous NDCs.
- Key Domestic Measures & Options Needing Support:
- Afforestation and reforestation
- Solar energy expansion
- Tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030
- Enhancing low-carbon hydrogen production
- Expanding Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS)
