Context:
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in its State of World Population 2025 Report revealed that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9, slipping below the replacement level of 2.1. This milestone signals India’s transition into a phase of sub-replacement fertility, raising new concerns over ageing, workforce shrinkage, and demographic sustainability.
Understanding Total Fertility Rate (TFR):
- Definition: TFR measures the average number of children a woman would bear if she experienced current age-specific fertility rates throughout her reproductive life (ages 15–49).
- Computation: Derived from Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs) for seven age cohorts — 15–19, 20–24, 25–29, 30–34, 35–39, 40–44, and 45–49 years.
- Synthetic Cohort Assumption: The measure assumes current fertility patterns remain constant across generations — a simplification that may not reflect real behavioural shifts.
Limitations of the Current TFR Methodology:
- Synthetic Cohort Bias: Real fertility preferences evolve over time and differ between younger and older women, violating the model’s assumption.
- Tempo Effect: Postponement of childbirth — common among educated and working women — temporarily depresses TFR by excluding delayed births from the current year’s count.
- Age-Cohort Gaps: Births among women below 15 or above 49 are excluded, despite such cases being non-negligible in some rural or traditional communities.
- Survey Underreporting: Social sensitivities and enumerator bias in fertility surveys, especially concerning underage pregnancies, may distort the true fertility picture.
Shifting Fertility Patterns in India:
- Urban Areas: Fertility is increasingly postponed to older cohorts (25–34 years), indicating career and education priorities rather than a true decline in reproductive intent.
- Rural Areas: Fertility is also shifting to the 20–34 age group, though decline in older cohorts (35–39+) suggests emerging preference for smaller families.
- The data points to timing changes, not necessarily fewer children overall.
Implications for India:
- Demographic Transition: India’s declining fertility aligns with global trends but also raises concerns of future population ageing and a shrinking workforce.
- Economic Outlook: Sub-replacement fertility does not inherently hinder growth — many advanced economies prosper with low TFRs.
- Missed Demographic Dividend: Persistent youth unemployment and automation pressures have prevented India from fully leveraging its demographic advantage.
- Elderly Care Challenge: The size of the elderly population today is largely independent of current fertility trends, suggesting policy focus should remain on social protection systems rather than fertility manipulation.
