Context:
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) is considering the creation of an E-commerce Price Index (EPI).
- Purpose: To statistically estimate the prices of goods and services bought via digital platforms, tracking inflationary trends within the e-commerce ecosystem.
- Structure
- Similar to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for retail inflation and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for factory-gate prices.
- Will comprise a representative basket of goods and services, including:
- Food products
- Clothing and footwear
- Housing
- Fuel & light
- Health
- Education
- Recreation and amusement
Significance and Context
- E-commerce Market Growth:
- Projected to surge from ₹12.2 trillion in 2024 to ₹24.1 trillion by 2028 (source: GlobalData).
- Digital Penetration:
- 895 million internet connections as of June 2023.
- Smartphone base expected to cross 1.1 billion by 2025.
- Policy and Data Challenges:
- MOSPI approached 20 leading e-commerce platforms to share data; response has been minimal.
- Efforts are ongoing to engage platforms through alternative channels.
- Timeline:
- Initially, there were plans to integrate e-commerce data into the new CPI series (due February 2026), but lack of data has delayed progress.
A) Why this move matters
- The rise in online purchasing behavior and price variations in digital marketplaces are currently untracked by traditional inflation measures (CPI/WPI).
- The EPI would help capture price dynamics unique to e-commerce, including:
- Flash sales, online discounts, and promotional pricing patterns.
- Impact of global supply chains on online product pricing.
- Price volatility due to dynamic pricing algorithms.
B) Potential challenges
- Data Privacy and Proprietary Constraints: E-commerce firms may be reluctant to share granular pricing data.
- Representativeness Issue: E-commerce consumption patterns differ significantly from traditional retail; ensuring the right weightage across categories will be critical.
- Volatility and Frequency: Unlike traditional retail prices, online prices are dynamic and highly volatile, requiring high-frequency data capture and sophisticated algorithms for smoothing.
C) Strategic Importance
- The index could become a leading inflation indicator for a rapidly growing segment of consumption.
- It will help policymakers gauge the impact of digital economy expansion on consumer prices and overall inflation trends.
- Investors and financial institutions can use the EPI to assess consumer demand resilience and online retail sector health.
Future Outlook
- The National Statistics Office (NSO) plans to launch:
- A revised CPI series in February 2026.
- New series for GDP and Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
- If successfully implemented, the EPI could become a foundational tool for monetary and fiscal policy calibration in India’s digital economy.
- Potential to pave the way for creating indices tracking online service pricing in sectors like travel, hospitality, education, and healthcare.
The proposed E-commerce Price Index reflects India’s effort to modernize its inflation tracking mechanisms in line with digital commerce expansion. While data collaboration remains a hurdle, the initiative if executed can offer valuable insights into consumer price movements and support data-driven policymaking for India’s evolving economy.
