EU-India Relations

Context:

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, with a delegation of 21 European Union (EU) commissioners, embarks on a two day trip to India. The largest EU delegation to India since its establishment manifests an expression of resolve by the Europeans to strengthen its partnership with the Indian side outside the U.S. orbit against the backdrop of changing U.S. policies in the Russia Ukraine conflict.

Key Highlights of the Visit

• Twirling the Historic EU Delegation
  • The elaborate visit, announced recently during a Davos conference, aims at creating new momentum for EU India relations.
• The Focus Is on Ukraine
  • This visit comes an important occasion, marking the 3rd anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, concurrently, the 16th round of sanctions by the EU on Moscow.
• Diverging U.S. EU Approach
  • The bloc remains determined in its support for Ukraine, despite the U.S.’s breakaway position in the UN and its ongoing reconsideration of military aid.

Key Objective Items

• Sanctions on Russia
  • The EU emphasizes continued enforcement of sanctions against Moscow.
  • India is not going to change its policy, especially as it has been importing much oil from Russia and rejecting Western imposed sanctions.
• Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA)
  • The most recent negotiations launched in 2022 are stalled over disagreements concerning tariff levels on cars, wine, and spirits.
  • The EU delegation is keen to introduce some political pressure before the next round of talks, which will be held in Brussels on March 10-14.
• Technology and Innovation
  • The TTC will be focused on AI regulation, semiconductors, quantum computing, and green tech.
• Strategic Roadmap on EU India Relations (2020-2025)
  • Updating their cooperation agenda, including Indo Pacific partnerships.
  • Meetings among Ms. von der Leyen, Prime Minister Modi, Indian ministers, and industry stakeholders.

Geopolitical Context

• Opposite Diplomacy by Ukraine
  • President Zelenskyy will visit Washington concerning military assistance, frozen Russian assets, and a ceasefire proposal.
• India’s Neutrality Towards Russia
  • Regardless of intense pressure from the West, India has maintained a course of strategic autonomy to benefit from discounted Russian oil imports.

The high profile European visit reinforces the resolve to diversifying partnerships, and India appears to be playing a central role here. While trading technology cooperation remains a priority, expect considerable geopolitical divergences in particular, on this one aligned with Russia.