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Context:
The International Labour Organization (ILO) has projected that the global unemployment rate will remain at a historically low level of 4.9% in 2026, affecting about 186 million people worldwide, according to its Employment and Social Trends 2026 report released in Geneva.
Key Findings of the Report:
1. Low unemployment, but poor job quality
- Despite low unemployment, job quality remains a major concern.
- Around 284 million workers globally still live in extreme poverty, earning less than $3 per day.
- Over 2 billion workers continue to be engaged in informal employment, lacking job security and social protection.
2. Slow decline in working poverty
- Between 2015 and 2025, the share of workers in extreme poverty declined by only 3.1 percentage points, reaching 7.9%.
- This is sharply lower than the 15 percentage point decline achieved in the previous decade.
- The ILO flags this as a sign of weak progress in inclusive growth.
3. Rising informality
- The global informality rate increased by 0.3 percentage points between 2015 and 2025.
- This reverses gains made in the earlier decade, when informality had declined.
Regional and structural concerns
- Low-income countries are witnessing a rise in working poor and informal workers, highlighting uneven recovery.
- Gender gaps remain widespread across labour markets.
- Limited progress has been made, except in areas such as the reduction of contributing family work.
ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo warned that these trends show “a lack of progress where it is needed most.”
Trade and structural shifts
- The report identifies trade uncertainty as a persistent short-term feature of the global economy.
- These uncertainties are interacting with:
- Structural transformation
- Digitalisation
- Together, they are reshaping global supply chains, production systems, and labour demand, often faster than workers can adapt.
