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Context:
According to the Global Carbon Project, India’s carbon emissions in 2025 are expected to rise slower than previous years, reflecting the impact of favourable monsoon conditions and increased use of renewable energy. The findings were released amid COP30 discussions in Belém, Brazil.
Key Highlights:
- India’s Emissions Growth:
- 2025: +1.4%, lower than 2024’s +4% growth.
- Slower growth attributed to favourable monsoon reducing cooling demand and renewable energy expansion, leading to lower coal use.
- Global Context:
- World emissions projected to rise 1.1% to 38 billion tonnes in 2025.
- China: +0.4% (slower growth due to renewable energy expansion).
- USA: +1.9%; EU: +0.4%.
- India’s Carbon Footprint:
- Third largest emitter globally: 3.2 billion tonnes CO2 annually (2024).
- Per capita emissions: 2.2 tonnes CO2/year — second lowest among 20 largest economies.
- Major contributor: Coal; increased renewables have moderated growth.
- Global Emissions Trends:
- Emissions from coal +0.8%, oil +1%, natural gas +1.3% in 2025.
- Permanent deforestation: ~4 billion tonnes CO2/year; reforestation offsets ~50% of this.
- CO2 emissions growth slowed over 2015–2024 to 0.3% per year (previous decade: 1.9%).
- Carbon Budget:
- Remaining budget to limit warming to 1.5°C: 170 billion tonnes CO2 (~4 years at current rates).
- Scientists warn that 1.5°C target is now virtually unattainable at current emission trends.
