State of the World Population 2025 Report

Context:

India’s population is estimated to have reached 146.39 crore by April, says a new UN demographic report, which adds that the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9, falling below the replacement level of 2.1.

Key Highlights:

• Global Population Trends:
  • World population reached 8.2 billion in 2025.
  • While population growth is slowing, significant disparities persist between high-income and low-income countries.
• Fertility Crisis Reframed:
  • The real concern is unmet fertility goals—not overpopulation or underpopulation.
  • Many individuals are unable to achieve desired family size due to lack of access to reproductive choices.
• Reproductive Rights and Agency:
  • Focus on autonomy in reproductive decisions—when, how many, and whether to have children.
  • Emphasizes access to contraception, healthcare, and education as foundational rights.
• Demographic Dividend Window:
  • Over 60% of global population is aged 15–64, presenting a historic productivity opportunity.
  • Potential for economic growth, especially in LMICs, if supported by education and job creation.
• Ageing Population Challenge:
  • Rapid rise in the 65+ age group globally.
  • Urgent need for healthcare systems, pension reforms, and social safety nets to support the elderly.
• Youth Bulge in LMICs:
  • Countries like India, Nigeria have a high concentration of youth, posing both challenges and opportunities.
  • Investing in skill development, health, and employment is crucial to harness this potential.
• Gender Gaps in Fertility and Healthcare:
  • Women’s education, autonomy, and access to services directly influence fertility patterns.
  • Persistent inequalities in contraception, maternal care, and family planning.

India’s Position

India’s Current Population Status (2025):

• Estimated population: 146.39 crore (April 2025)
• India is now the world’s most populous nation, overtaking China (141.61 crore)

Fertility Trends:

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• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Declined to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1
• TFR in 2021 (SRS data): 2.0 – replacement level “attained” nationally
• Replacement level TFR: Average number of children per woman required to maintain population level
• The report emphasizes reproductive agency – ensuring individuals have informed and free choices in reproductive matters

Population Growth Projection:

• India’s population expected to peak at 170 crore in the next ~40 years
• Post-peak, a gradual decline is anticipated due to sustained low fertility

Youth and Working-Age Demographics:

• 0–14 years: 24%
• 10–19 years: 17%
• 10–24 years: 26%
• Working age (15–64 years): 68% – reflects demographic dividend opportunity

Elderly Population and Life Expectancy:

• Aged 65+: 7% of total population in 2025
• Expected to rise significantly in future decades
• Life expectancy at birth (2025):
  • Men: 71 years
  • Women: 74 years

Census and Official Estimates:

• Last Census conducted in 2011
• The delayed 2021 Census now scheduled for completion by March 2027
• India’s internal population projection (2019): 141.10 crore by 2025