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Context: The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) for the first time set out a detailed “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway — warning that a breach of the 1.5°C global warming limit will bring irreversible ecological losses that no adaptation could undo.
What the Pathway Is
- It projects a trajectory where the world overshoots the Paris Agreement’s central goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
- Which the report says is now unavoidable
- The pathway seeks to hold peak temperatures after the overshoot as low as possible
- And then bring it back down below the limit by 2100
Key Figures to Remember
| Scenario | Projected warming |
|---|---|
| 1.5°C breach | “In the next few years” |
| If every country delivers its national climate plan and net-zero target | Peak warming of 1.8°C |
| Current policies | About 2.6°C by 2100 |
The Paris Agreement Context
- Adopted at COP21, Paris, 2015; entered into force 2016
- Goal: hold warming well below 2°C, and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C
- Operates through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted every five years
- The global stocktake assesses collective progress every five years
Important Facts for Exams
- Report: “Limiting Overshoot”, by UNEP
- First detailed “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway from the UN
- 1.5°C breach expected “in the next few years”
- Full delivery of pledges → 1.8°C peak; current policies → about 2.6°C by 2100
- UNEP — headquartered at Nairobi, Kenya; established 1972 after the Stockholm Conference
- UNEP also publishes the annual Emissions Gap Report and Adaptation Gap Report
- UN Secretary-General: António Guterres
- Paris Agreement, 2015 — well below 2°C, pursuing 1.5°C; operates through NDCs
- Net-negative emissions are required to return below the limit after a peak
- India’s targets: net zero by 2070, 45 per cent emissions intensity reduction by 2030, 50 per cent non-fossil capacity by 2030
