Context:
The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025, released ahead of COP30 in Belem, Brazil, highlights accelerating global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and insufficient progress toward Paris Agreement targets. The report warns that without rapid emission reductions this decade, the world faces a serious escalation of climate risks and damages.
Key Highlights:
- Global Emissions: GHG emissions rose 2.3% in 2024, reaching an all-time high of 57.7 GtCO₂e.
- Acceleration Trend: This growth rate is nearly four times higher than the 2010s’ average (0.6%), driven by renewed fossil fuel use amid economic recovery.
- Major Contributors: India recorded the largest absolute increase, followed by China, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States. The EU was the only major emitter to reduce emissions in 2024.
Country-Wise Trends:
- India: Emissions grew 3.6%, the steepest absolute rise globally.
- Indonesia: Highest growth rate at 4.6%, followed by India.
- China: Emissions rose 0.5%, lower than 2023.
- Per Capita Emissions: Global average is 6.4 tons CO₂e. India and Indonesia remain below average, while the US, Russia, China, and EU are above average.
Projected Warming & Climate Risks:
- Current pledges: If fully implemented, global temperatures projected to rise 2.3–2.5°C by 2100, exceeding Paris targets.
- Business-as-usual scenario: Temperatures could rise up to 2.8°C.
- Updated pledges show only marginal improvement over last year (2.6–2.8°C), indicating global efforts remain off track.
UNEP Findings & Warnings:
- Required emission reductions by 2035:
- 35% for a 2°C pathway
- 55% for a 1.5°C pathway (compared to 2019 levels)
- Inger Andersen, UNEP: “Unprecedented emissions cuts are needed in an increasingly tight window.”
Implications for India & the World:
- India’s surge is linked to rapid economic growth and reliance on coal-based power.
- Per capita emissions in India remain below global averages, highlighting a developmental energy gap.
- Urgent need for renewable energy expansion, climate financing, and technology transfer to accelerate global low-carbon transition.
