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India May Become World’s 2nd-Largest Economy by 2038: EY Report

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RBI Grade BNABARD ESISEBI
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Source: ET

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Context:

According to the August 2025 issue of EY Economy Watch, India’s economic trajectory remains robust despite global uncertainties. The report projects India to emerge as the second-largest economy by 2038, supported by strong domestic fundamentals.

Key Highlights of the Report:

  • Growth Projections:
    • $20.7 trillion GDP (PPP) by 2030
    • $34.2 trillion GDP (PPP) by 2038, making India the 2nd-largest economy globally.
  • Economic Strengths:
    • High savings and investment rates.
    • Favourable demographics (youth-driven workforce).
    • Sustainable fiscal position.
    • Strong domestic demand and advancement in modern technologies.
  • Global Challenges and Mitigation:
    • US tariffs on Indian imports could impact growth, but adverse effects can be limited to 10 basis points with proper countermeasures.
    • Resilience driven by domestic consumption rather than external trade reliance.

Significance:

  • Positions India as one of the most dynamic among the world’s top five economies.
  • Reinforces India’s potential as a global growth engine in the coming decades.
  • Highlights the need for policy measures to counter external risks and leverage demographic advantages.
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