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Prudence vs. Populism

2 min read
RBI ESINABARD ESISEBI
In one line

Gujarat and Odisha have the strongest fiscal positions; both states are with high own tax revenue and manageable debt. UP is maintaining revenue surplus, yet a lot of dependency on central funds.
WB and Rajasthan are confronted with severe debts and deficits, which impede any possibilities for their investment potentials.

Key Findings from 2025-26 Budgets of Five Big States

  • States with Revenue Surplus: Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Odisha
  • States with Revenue Deficit: Rajasthan and West Bengal
  • Debt Wise Concerns: These two states, Rajasthan and West Bengal, carry high sovereign debt and fiscal deficits.
  • Capital Outlay: Odisha and Uttar Pradesh have the highest capital outlay in relation to the size of their economies.

Uttar Pradesh: Balancing Growth & Welfare

  • The largest economy of the five states but lowest per capita income
  • Despite a large welfare focus (with 92,000 jobs, salary hikes, and scooters for women students), it maintains a revenue surplus
  • 43% of revenue receipts come from own taxes
  • Debt to GSDP Ratio ~30%

Gujarat: Strong Fiscal Position

  • Most prosperous state among the five, per capita income three times that of Uttar Pradesh
  • Self sufficient revenue generation (over 60% from its own tax sources)
  • Lowest debt to GSDP ratio (~15%) of all five states
  • Moderate capital outlay relative to GSDP

Odisha: High Capital Investment, Low Debt

  • Revenue surplus maintained in the face of increased spending
  • Central assistance is received (only 28% of revenue from own taxes)
  • High capital outlay (6.1% of GSDP) among the highest
  • Lowest debt to GSDP ratio (12.7%)

West Bengal: Fiscal Struggles Continue

  • It is a revenue deficit state that holds high sovereign debt (~38% of GSDP).
  • Very low capital outlay relative to total expenditure (1.94% of GSDP).
  • Own tax revenue stagnated (~42% of revenue receipts).

Rajasthan: Rising Debt, Low Investment

  • Fiscal deficit crosses limits (more than 3.5% of GSDP).
  • Debt to GSDP ratio at 36.5% (second highest following West Bengal).
  • Lowest capital outlay in relation to total expenditure.
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