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Context:
India’s industrial output, measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), grew 4% in August 2025, easing slightly from July’s upwardly revised 4.3% growth. The slowdown was led by weaker manufacturing activity, despite a recovery in mining and electricity.
Key Highlights:
| Category | July 2025 | August 2025 | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall IIP Growth | 4.3% (revised from 3.5%) | 4% | Slight slowdown, but rebound from Jan–Jun weakness |
| Manufacturing | 5.38% | 3.8% | Slowed due to postponed purchases before Sept GST cuts |
| Mining | Contracted (monsoon impact) | 6% | Strong recovery |
| Electricity | Negative (May–June contraction) | 4.15% | Continued recovery |
| Capital Goods | 6.8% | 4.4% | Moderation in investment activity |
| Infrastructure/Construction Goods | 13.7% | 10.6% | Still robust despite slowdown |
| Consumer Durables | 7.2% | 3.5% | GST wait-and-watch sentiment hit demand |
| Consumer Non-durables | Negative trend | -6.3% | Continued contraction since start of FY25 |
Policy & Market Factors:
- GST Council’s sharp tax rate cuts on autos, textiles, packaged foods, kitchenware, and services (life & health insurance, restaurants) announced in Sept 2025 as a “GST savings festival” are expected to stimulate demand.
- Analysts highlight strong rural demand from good monsoon, kharif sowing, and benign inflation, while urban demand is supported by lower lending rates, income tax relief, and GST cuts.
- Risks: Weak global demand, US tariffs on India (50%), and excess rains impacting agriculture.
