Context:
India will have above-average temperatures in March 2025 across most regions following a warmer February, the weather office forecast, conditions that could threaten winter-sown crops such as wheat, chickpea and rapeseed.
Warmer March
- Above be predicted from usual to high temperatures in March following February warmest period.
- Severe heatwaves are showing distress in central India, northern regions of southern India, and a few parts of the northeast and east.
- In fact, winter sown crops are included: wheat, chickpea, and rapeseed are at risk.
Implications for Wheat Production and Policy
- Indicate that wheat harvest in India would be of great importance by 2025 after three consecutive years of poor harvests.
- Rising temperatures would be likely to produce conditions that lead to lower yields for the fourth consecutive year, raising concerns regarding supply.
- Possible policy shift
- Reduce import duty or remove the 40 percent import tax and thus allow private traders to import wheat as domestic production does not suffice.
- Banning wheat exports since 2022 may continue into the next fiscal year.
Wheat prices soared to record heights in February as a result of tight supplies and sell exports have mixed performance over the past three months.
Reservoir Storage and Water Crisis
- Total storage across 155 reservoirs (CWC monitored)
- 180.85 BCM (70.15 percent of total capacity).
- Storage levels improved
- 119 percent of last year and 115 percent of normal levels.
- But regional disparities
- water in most of the northern states (Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Rajasthan).
Harsh weather threats will jeopardize food security and may affect inflation and trade policies.
Wheat import changes in policy will also be expected, as heat waves could potentially reduce domestic production.
Source: BS
